The potential war between Iran and a joint US-Israeli force presents a unique challenge to the longstanding alliance between these two nations. This conflict, which has already begun, threatens to strain the strategic relationship that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has carefully cultivated over his political career.
Netanyahu's foreign policy has been built on two key pillars: an unbreakable partnership with the US and a relentless diplomatic and covert battle against Iran. However, by involving the US in what he perceives as Israel's existential struggle against Iran, Netanyahu is taking a significant risk that could test the limits of this alliance.
Persuading US President Donald Trump to join the war is a major victory for Netanyahu, highlighting the strong bond between the two leaders. If successful, they could swiftly achieve their shared goal of overthrowing the Iranian government, potentially avoiding a prolonged conflict. But if the war persists, the ties between these allies may face further scrutiny.
Ofer Shelah, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, warns that a prolonged war could lead to a decline in public support for Israel in the US. This shift in public opinion, Shelah argues, could be "very harmful for Israel in the medium and long term." However, he acknowledges Netanyahu's focus on the present, stating, "Netanyahu is not interested in the medium and long term."
The evolving US public opinion is a key factor in this dynamic. Netanyahu's ability to convince Trump to strike Iran together is a culmination of his decades-long proximity to Washington. As Israel's longest-serving leader, Netanyahu's fluency in English and his portrayal of himself as Israel's bridge to America have been pivotal. However, recent years have seen a drop in support for Israel among the American public, with a dramatic shift in sympathies towards the Palestinians, particularly among Democrats.
Even some Republicans and Trump's own supporters have voiced opposition to the diplomatic and financial support the US has provided to Israel during its ongoing war on multiple fronts, sparked by Hamas' attacks in October 2023. The devastating images from the war in Gaza have further isolated Israel internationally.
With this new war against Iran, Netanyahu is targeting an enemy that he and many Israelis view as an existential threat due to Iran's support for anti-Israeli militias, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its nuclear program. Netanyahu has led the charge against Iran on the world stage for much of his career, and he sees this war as an opportunity to deliver a decisive blow to the "terror regime."
However, the conflict has already had significant repercussions. At least six US troops have been killed, travel has been disrupted across the region, and oil prices have surged, impacting the cost of living for Americans. The direction and aim of the war remain unclear, with questions about the effectiveness of air power, the potential replacement for Iran's leadership, and the role of Israel and the US in this transition.
Commentator Nadav Eyal warns that Israel must be cautious, as many will blame it if things go awry. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining American public support, stating that "striking any individual military facility" is secondary to this goal.
Despite these concerns, Aaron David Miller, a Middle East adviser to both Democratic and Republican administrations, believes Netanyahu has little to lose from this war. With elections approaching, Netanyahu can use the conflict to divert attention from the failures of the October 7 attacks, the worst in Israel's history. He can position himself as a courageous wartime leader, fulfilling his lifelong pledge to confront Iran, with the support of the American president, who Miller suggests can halt the war at will.
"If Trump feels as if it's going south, he'll find a way to de-escalate," Miller said, "and his good friend Benjamin Netanyahu will follow."
This situation presents a complex and controversial scenario, leaving many questions unanswered. What do you think? Is Netanyahu's gamble worth the potential risks to the US-Israeli alliance? Will the war achieve its intended goals, or will it further isolate Israel internationally? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
