Bold intro: Will Wilson Contreras finally anchor the Red Sox at first base and reboot a wobbling lineup? And this is the part most people miss: the move carries risks as well as upside.
The Plan, In Brief
Boston acquired Willson Contreras in late December from the St. Louis Cardinals, sending SP Hunter Dobbins and pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita the other way. After spending the first nine seasons catching for the Cubs and Cardinals, Contreras shifted to first base last year, logging 120 games there along with 15 as the designated hitter.
What Contreras Could Bring
The Red Sox hope he supplies both offensive production and defensive reliability at a position that has been unsettled for years. Over the past six seasons, first basemen in Boston have often produced inconsistent results, and only two of the six players listed below posted a positive bWAR on Baseball Reference:
- 2020 (short season): Michael Chavis, 42 games at 1B, .212/.636, -0.8 bWAR
- 2021: Bobby Dalbec, 133 games (111 at 1B), .240/.792, 0.3 bWAR
- 2022: Bobby Dalbec, 117 games (64 at 1B), .215/.652, -0.7 bWAR
- 2023: Triston Casas, 132 games (115 at 1B), .263/.856, 2.2 bWAR
- 2024: Dominic Smith, 84 games (66 at 1B), .237/.706, 0.0 bWAR
- 2025: Abraham Toro, 77 games (57 at 1B), .239/.659, -0.2 bWAR
Excluding Casas’ standout 2023 season, the track record has been rough. Contreras, by contrast, has been remarkably consistent when he’s on the field. The idea is that switching to first base should keep him healthier and more available, a pattern he showed in parts of last season. Since turning 30, his OPS has ranged from .791 to .848 each year, his wRC+ has sat between 124 and 141, and he has typically launched 20–22 homers in full seasons. He endured a shortened 2024 (84 games) due to a broken arm and a broken finger, yet still tallied 15 homers in limited action.
In his age-33 season, Contreras posted elite indicators: top-20 percentile in Barrel % and Hard Hit%, and top-5 percentile in Bat Speed. That suggests he's aging well for a hitter, which likely motivated the Red Sox to commit to him for two years. His spray chart also indicates the left-field power alley at Fenway’s Monster should suit him well, building on last year’s 52 extra-base hits (31 doubles).
Defensively, Contreras moved to first base with poise, posting a +6 Outs Above Average (in the 90th percentile) and maintaining strong arm strength (76th percentile). He hasn’t ruled out catching in a pinch, but that scenario is not expected to be a regular occurrence. Rosters projects place him in the cleanup spot with Wilyer Abreu protecting him from right-handed pitching. One goal is to lift his walk rate back toward his career 9.8% mark after dropping to 7.8% last year. His 23 HBPs, second in the NL, do not count toward that walk rate.
If Contreras can sustain a bWAR near or above 2.5 and stay healthy, the Red Sox could finally enjoy dependable production at first base in 2026.
The Injury Narrative: Triston Casas
The drive for consistency at first base is partly driven by Triston Casas’ injury woes. After what looked like a springboard season in 2023, Casas missed 118 days in 2024 with a rib injury and then ruptured his patellar tendon on May 2 of the following year, ending his season. Across 92 games in the two seasons, his line was .222/.318/.412 with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 100 wRC+.
Casas has three years left on his contract before free agency and will be eager to return in 2026 to regain value. If he can stay healthy, he could reclaim a starting role and help balance the lineup. Reports from spring training have been optimistic about his recovery, and a May 1 return would be a win for all sides, albeit likely intensifying the crowded DH/first-base/designated-hitter mix.
Romy Gonzalez: A Potential Insurance Plan
Gonzalez isn’t expected to be Opening Day ready. He appeared in 58 games at first base last season, plus 42 at second and two at third, with a notable left-handed platoon success. A lingering shoulder issue from September remains a concern, but if he can return in the first half, he offers valuable depth at first base and provides a bat against lefties that Boston could use.
Other Contenders
As the season approaches, Casas and Romy Gonzalez will presumably handle the majority of first-base duties once healthy. In the meantime, a couple of depth options merit mention: Andruw Monasterio has logged 36 innings at first base for Milwaukee in two seasons, with all five balls fielded cleanly according to Statcast. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has zero major-league innings at first base in more than 900 games, has expressed willingness to try the position, noting his comfort at second base and his curiosity about playing all nine positions someday.
Minor League Depth
- Nick Sogard appeared in 30 games for Boston last year, spending the most time at first base (12 games, 11 starts). At 28, he’s a plausible contributor in 2026 and could find his way onto the Opening Day roster.
- Nathan Hickey spent 72 games at first base for Worcester, hitting .234/.325/.408 with 17 homers and 75 RBI. He’ll need to show clear progress in 2026 to attract a big-league call.
Projection and Landscape
- Fangraphs BATX projections illustrate a 50th-percentile outcome for the Red Sox’s first basemen this year, with multiple players providing overlap at positions beyond first base. The expectation is that Contreras, Casas, Gonzalez, and others will share time across 1B, DH, and occasional catcher, depending on health and matchups.
- In the AL East, first base is a brutal battleground. The ranking landscape positions Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) and Pete Alonso (BAL) as elite anchors, with Contreras (BOS) slated in the upper tier thanks to his steady bat and versatile defense. The discussion highlights that Contreras could push toward 25 home runs in 2026 if he stays healthy and leverages Fenway’s ballpark dynamics.
Open Questions for Discussion
- Can Contreras deliver a full, healthy season at first base and sustain his recent offensive trajectory without catching duties weighing him down?
- How much value does Casas’ return and Gonzalez’s availability add to the overall lineup balance, especially in the presence of DH competition?
- Should Boston lean more on Monasterio or Kiner-Falefa as emergency first basemen, or keep the focus on the Contreras–Casas–Gonzalez trio as primary contributors?
Bottom line
If Contreras stays healthy and continues his current trend, the Red Sox should experience improved stability at first base in 2026, reducing the guessing game that has plagued the position for several seasons. The real test will be managing health and ensuring that Casas can contribute again later in the year without long absences derailing the lineup. Where do you stand on this plan—does Contreras represent a turning point, or are injuries and depth concerns too significant to overlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
